Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
